International Journal of Social Science & Economic Research
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Title:
EMPIRICAL TESTS OF STOCK MARKET BUBBLES IN CHINA BASED ON GSADF METHOD

Authors:
Hengyu Yao

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Hengyu Yao
College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 210016, China

MLA 8
Yao, Hengyu. "EMPIRICAL TESTS OF STOCK MARKET BUBBLES IN CHINA BASED ON GSADF METHOD." Int. j. of Social Science and Economic Research, vol. 5, no. 3, Mar. 2020, pp. 642-659, ijsser.org/more2020.php?id=43. Accessed Mar. 2020.
APA(6)
Yao, H. (2020, March). EMPIRICAL TESTS OF STOCK MARKET BUBBLES IN CHINA BASED ON GSADF METHOD. Int. j. of Social Science and Economic Research, 5(3), 642-659. Retrieved from ijsser.org/more2020.php?id=43
Chicago
Yao, Hengyu. "EMPIRICAL TESTS OF STOCK MARKET BUBBLES IN CHINA BASED ON GSADF METHOD." Int. j. of Social Science and Economic Research 5, no. 3 (March 2020), 642-659. Accessed March, 2020. ijsser.org/more2020.php?id=43.

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Abstract:
Taking the two representative stock price indices, namely the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Composite Index, as the research objects, this paper first of all makes a concrete analysis of the operation of Chinese stock market, and analyzes the possibility of the existence of stock market bubbles in China from the perspectives of return and volatility, P/E ratio, P/B ratio and turnover ratio. Secondly, this paper attempts to test the existence of bubbles in the two stock price indices, using closing price, P/E ratio and P/B ratio as proxy variables for bubbles, based on GSADF method. The results confirm the existence of bubbles in Chinese stock market during the sample period, and the results of P/B ratio series as the proxy for the bubble level are more significant. Finally, this paper using GSADF method verifies two stock market bubbles in China in 2007 and 2015, respectively, and the former lasted 10 months or more, while the latter lasted only 1-2 months.

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