International Journal of Social Science & Economic Research
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Title:
LINEAR STATISTICAL MODELLING OF THE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTGROWTH OF KENYA

Authors:
Miriam Wamaitha Thuo

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Miriam Wamaitha Thuo
Lecturer, Department of Social Sciences, Chuka University

MLA 8
Thuo, Miriam Wamaitha. "LINEAR STATISTICAL MODELLING OF THE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTGROWTH OF KENYA." Int. j. of Social Science and Economic Research, vol. 6, no. 2, Feb. 2021, pp. 382-401, doi:10.46609/IJSSER.2021.v06i02.001. Accessed Feb. 2021.
APA 6
Thuo, M. (2021, February). LINEAR STATISTICAL MODELLING OF THE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTGROWTH OF KENYA. Int. j. of Social Science and Economic Research, 6(2), 382-401. doi:10.46609/IJSSER.2021.v06i02.001
Chicago
Thuo, Miriam Wamaitha. "LINEAR STATISTICAL MODELLING OF THE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTGROWTH OF KENYA." Int. j. of Social Science and Economic Research 6, no. 2 (February 2021), 382-401. Accessed February, 2021. doi:10.46609/IJSSER.2021.v06i02.001.

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Abstract:
GDP a basic measure of an economy’s economic performance, is the market value of all final goods and services produced within the borders of a nation in a year. Kenya has promoted rapid economic growth through public investment, encouragement of smallholder agricultural production, and incentives for private (often foreign) industrial investment and this has seen the economy experience some periods of growth. The overall objective of the study was to model and forecast the GDP Growth rate for Kenya for the period 2017-2021. The features of annual Kenya GDP Growth rate data over a period of fifty two years are studied. Secondary data spanning from 1961-2016 was used. To model the GDP, a class of ARIMA models was built following the Box-Jenkins approach that involved the stages of identification, estimation, and diagnostic checking. Results indicated that the ARIMA (4,1,2) was the best model to fit the GDP data. Finally, the fitted ARIMA model was used to do an out-off-sample forecasting for GDP Growth rate values for 2017-2021. The forecasting values obtained indicated that the economy would grow initially but later decrease gradually during the forecasted periods.

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